Final Renewal Predictions for Revolution, The 100, Beauty and the Beast, Nashville, Hannibal, Community, Tomorrow People, Shield and more! - UPDATED!

Update 1: Looks like I was close to being on the money with Beauty and the Beast scoring the most surprising renewal or cancellation of the season so far. Against me, I still didn't predict its renewal. In my favor , from all websites I frequent about this, I was the closest one giving it a close to renewal 43% chance and I argued yesterday that the show had a better shot and that it wouldn't be nearly as mind blowing as others were predicting! Meanwhile, no surprise shock for Hart of Dixie's renewal, The Tomorrow People's cancellation, The 100's renewal or Star Crossed's cancellation! More to come!


Ok guys, this it!

After a year of speculation about which shows are and aren’t renewed, it all comes down to an end this week. With the upfronts kicking off next Monday, I would be shocked if we don’t know all renewals and cancellations by Friday the latest. That means that I’ve waited as long as I could, but I couldn’t possibly wait more.

Here’s a look at my final predictions (in brackets you can find my final odds for each show).

I will start by the groups of shows that are pretty much non-brainers so I will just list them to be done with them!

Absolutely dead-certain to be renewed and haven’t been yet just because ABC hasn’t renewed a single show until now

Modern Family: 100%
Scandal: 100%
Once Upon a Time: 100%
Grey’s Anatomy: 100%
The Middle: 100%
Revenge: 100%
Agents of Shield: 100%
Castle: 100%
Last Man Standing: 95%

Fairly Likely to be renewed and would be shockers otherwise

Law and Order: SVU: 90% (those costs negotiations be dammed!) Renewed while I was publishing the article!
The Goldbergs: 85%
Suburgatory: 85%
The 100: 85%
Resurrection: 85%
About a Boy: 85%

Certain to be cancelled no matter what

Rake: 0% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Betrayal: 0%
Killer Women: 0%
Hostages: 0%
Intelligence: 2%
Believe: 5%
Crisis: 5%

Enlisted: 5% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Star-Crossed: 5%
Super Fun Night: 10%
Bad Teacher: 10%
Surviving Jack: 10% Cancelled while I was publishing the article

Will be cancelled and would be surprises otherwise (although not totally inconceivable)

The Carrie Diaries [Note: For the purposes of the article, summer renewals a la Unforgettable are not considered renewals]: 25%
The Mentalist [Note: For the purposes of the article, a move to another network counts as a cancellation]: 25%
Dads: 20% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Mixology: 20%
Trophy Wife: 30%
The Crazy Ones: 30%




Moving on to the vastly more interesting category...

 The Truly Bubble Shows Which I am Pending Towards Renewal but nothing would really shock me (aka the odds of me being wrong in at least one of these are high)

Community: 60% (the spackle season will continue!)
Hannibal: 65% (if Season 1 was enough, I don’t see why comparable ratings with more episodes in the can aren’t)
Nashville: 55% (have you seen the horror movie that have been ABC new 10 pm dramas all year?)
Parenthood: 55% (it should get that farewell season, somehow, somewhere, even after a disappointing season)

The Truly Bubble Shows Which I am Pending Towards Cancellation but nothing would really shock me (aka the odds of me being wrong in at least one of these are high)

Revolution: 40% (NBC doesn’t really need it and I have a hard time justifying that Friday investment)
Dracula: 40% (Its relative numbers are in line with what Hannibal pulled last year and that was enough for renewal… but can’t NBC do something else in the fall before Hannibal that is also as cheap and as more upside?)

Growing Up Fisher: 45% (With NBC piling up comedy pilots and little space to put them, will they really bring back a show getting an indirect voice lead-in that has 13 episodes and is pulling Parks-esque numbers? - possibly the biggest bubble show of the season for me)
Friends with Better Lives: 45% (I think in any other circumstance it would have been renewed and it should probably be renewed on merit alone for the numbers it’s been getting… But CBS doesn’t need a 6th comedy pilot and I think ultimately that will prevail - for the record, this is one of the biggest bubble shows of the season for me))
The Tomorrow People: 40% (it’s not impossible that the CW could renew 3 more shows instead of 2 and it’s not impossible said 3rd shows is TTP – more on that in a second – but the combined odds of both those things happening are just too slim. Maybe putting it on this category is already optimistic)

Now we get to the part of those which are left! Every year, there is always a shocker renewal or cancellation that defies what the general expectation was. To me last year personally, by far the most shocking decision was the cancellation of How to Live with Your Parents, which I still have trouble explaining very well to this day. The Carrie Diaries is probably the biggest shocker for most though. The year before, ABC again made the splashiest decision when renewing the presumed dead Body of Proof, even though I never thought it was that big of a stretch anyway. The CW was also on the surprises map when it cancelled The Secret Circle in favor of Hart of Dixie/Nikita. CBS surprisingly picked CSI: NY for a final year instead of the widely believed to have the edge CSI: Miami and FOX also joined in when it gave to the costs and canned Terra Nova despite its numbers.
These things will continue to happen and, no matter what, we won’t get them all right. These cases are not the aforementioned cases of bubble shows that really could go either way and not be surprises – they would just mean that I was leaning the wrong way but in practically all of these cases I could also find arguments to go the other way, so it’s not a big deal. But stuff like the aforementioned cases is stuff that I believe truly shocks most TV followers. Is a shock in the works this year? For sure. Can we guess where it will come from? Well… we can certainly try.

Will The Neighbors be renewed?

The Neighbors is one of those cases that I think would be called an upset by a lot of people if it were to get renewed. Yet, like another case I will be looking at in a bit, I would like to note that I have made sure to never had it lower than likely cancellation all season. Let’s be clear: if ABC wants to renew a 6th comedy, The Neighbors is the only smart choice they have left. A Trophy Wife renewal would be a huge reach even for ABC and if they were going to do it because they produce it (as they tend to be biased towards), they might as well make the reach for The Neighbors which is not only already airing in the lowest priority slot but also has already the highest episode count. Everyone views this show as a very certain cancellation but to me the show was already some 0.3 or so tents below what it would take to get a renewal, being a sophomore and being produced by ABC. Too bad it never actually passed those extra 0.3. The show also has a history of reaches. Canning the already on Fridays and compatible with LMS Malibu Country to put the incompatible and only slightly better rated TN there felt like a reach, so clearly there is something there. Will there be something there again this year? Not impossible, for sure, but I don’t think the leap will be all that easy, especially with ABC’s reportedly strong multi-cam pilots in the works. A 40% chance.

Will Hart of Dixie be cancelled?

I would be shocked if this were to happen. Even though ratings suck on Fridays, they don’t necessarily suck more than they did on Mondays once you account for the genera CW decline this spring and once you add in Friday factor. Yet, syndication is still there giving it a huge buffer to fall through, so by all accounts, it should easily get a renewal. However, unlike a case like Revenge (which has bubble/slightly above bubble ratings so would never be an easy cancellation even without syndication unlike popular opinion), Hart of Dixie would be a clear cancel without syndication (50% ratings!), which means that the best syndication does is to put it at a slightly above average level (if you assume 80% as bubblish and assume syndication gives something like 40%, Hart of Dixie would land at a slightly above bubble level). Will that be enough? I am still firmly holding strong on the “yes, it will, for sure – Hart of Dixie is not a bubble show!!!”, especially because if there is a night the CW needs stuff to put on is Fridays, but this is certainly a potential shock source. 75% Renewal Chance and Still Ignoring the Bubble Classification

Will Beauty and the Beast be renewed?

Yes, I’ve saved the most controversial for last. Here’s the deal with this show: even though every single industry website that I follow has had this one as a certain cancellation since early fall, you may notice (if you are willing to back far back enough in my posts) that I never actually downgraded it from likely cancellation. Yes, the show has horrible ratings, but those horrible numbers are not that far from the also horrible ratings that other freshman shows have gotten on the CW (give or take a couple of tenths!) – the key word being freshman. If presented with the choice, I am very inclined to believe that the CW would prefer a show that has 44 episodes and that pulls a 0.4 than a show that has 22 episodes and pulls a 0.5. Yes, fans will complain about how unfair it is, but the financial sense is what it is. Now, I still have the show as likely cancellation despite all this. That’s pretty much because I had assumed that the CW would have no room on its schedule for it. But if the CW is willing to let ANTM take the usual first two months of the season on Fridays (as it apparently will since it was not announced in the CW’s early fall schedule), it’s not impossible that they make a Friday rotation that is ANTM/Beauty and the Beast, Hart of Dixie/Beauty and the Beast, Hart of Dixie/Hardest failing weeknight show (with the remaining of BaTb’s season airing in summer again). Is this a long shot? It would be surprising yes, but by no means I think it would be a shocker. TvByTheNumbers claims it would be the most mind blowing renewal of the season and I find that feeling a lot around the internet. Frankly, I strongly disagree with it. I don’t think a Beauty and the Beast renewal would be shocking and, at this point, I wouldn’t even go with very surprising. It wuld be further cementing the importance of the # of episodes for the CW and that’s an idea I am actually believing more and more. I am giving it a 43% chance!

Well, that’s a wrap guys! I’ll be back on the weekend to challenge you to fantasy schedule with me once we know exactly what’s been renewed and not! Thank you for reading and let me know what you think of my predictions in the comments below!

Final Odds (Below 50%: Cancellation Predicted | Above 50%: Renewal Predicted)

Modern Family: 100%
Scandal: 100%
Once Upon a Time: 100%
Grey’s Anatomy: 100%
The Middle: 100%
Revenge: 100%
Agents of Shield: 100%
Castle: 100%
Last Man Standing: 95%
Law and Order: SVU: 90% Renewed while I was publishing the article!
The Goldbergs: 85%
Suburgatory: 85%
The 100: 85%
Resurrection: 85%
About a Boy: 85%
Hart of Dixie: 75%
Hannibal: 65%
Community: 60%
Parenthood: 55%
Nashville: 55%
Growing Up Fisher: 45%
Friends with Better Lives: 45%
Beauty and the Beast: 43%
Revolution: 40%
Dracula: 40%
The Neighbors: 40%
The Tomorrow People: 40%
Trophy Wife: 30%
The Crazy Ones: 30%
The Carrie Diaries: 25%
The Mentalist: 25%
Dads: 20% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Mixology: 20%
Super Fun Night: 10%
Bad Teacher: 10%
Surviving Jack: 10% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Believe: 5%
Crisis: 5%
Enlisted: 5% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Star-Crossed: 5%
Intelligence: 2%
Rake: 0% Cancelled while I was publishing the article
Betrayal: 0%
Killer Women: 0%
Hostages: 0%

[In case it's not clear: biggest bubble shows of the season for me are Nashville, Parenthood, Growing Up Fisher and Friends with Better Lives]