Fall TV Preview - Mondays

Hey guys!

The official TV season is not far from us now, as it will be kicking in in high gear in little over a month! That means that soon enough those of us who are rating addicts will be salivating again to hear the daily rating news! Meanwhile, whether we like ratings or not, that also means we will all be in stress over the fate of our favorite shows!

Before all the madness starts, I thought it would be a cool idea to preview the ratings of our favorite shows while also playing a little game in which I invite you all the guess the ratings as well!  (Credit for inspiration for this idea goes to SpottedRatings which annually does the wonderful Best Case Worst Case feature which I highly recommend). Hopefully at season's end we can all see which one of us is the best with the crystal ball!

We kick things off with the predictions for the Monday shows below! Scroll down to see my thoughts on each show and click on the link at the end to submit your own predictions! Please note that these are predictions for the entire season's average (regardless of any changes to a show's situation, such as a move to a different day). Only shows that are announced as airing in the fall with a proper introduction are included for now (that means, for instance, no inclusion of The Following, which only airs in the winter) - separate posts will be up for those later in the season.

I invite you all to participate while also sharing your thoughts on the comment section! Hopefully this is fun for everyone and a good way to create enthusiasm about the much waited fall TV season!

Mondays

Gotham (New Show)

Timeslot: Mondays at 8, FOX

Lead-in: Local Programming

Lead-out: Sleepy Hollow

Episode Order: 16 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, 2 Broke Girls & Mom, The Originals, Monday Night Football


The Pros:
• Major hype and build-up should ensure high initial sampling
• Strong promotional push from FOX
• Compatible pairing with Sleepy Hollow
• Despite a generally strong competition, all 3 competing hours are female leaning, which means there is a very good chance this show can conquer the male eyeballs.

The Cons:
• Having to face The Big Bang Theory for the first six weeks (including a full one hour episode against the premiere) will be very tough and could very well limit the aforementioned high initial sampling
• Even though the broadcast competition is indeed female heavy, it will have to face the very male skewing Monday Night Football
• History has shown that shows with this much build-up interest pre-season also tend to be the shows that attract more of the “disappointment” commentaries, which are never good for the show’s word of mouth.

The Verdict: Even though I am not entirely convinced that this show will be the answer to all the prayers that FOX is hoping it to be, I am still reasonably confident that it gets renewed, even though I see it being more of an Agents of Shield type of hit than an outright megahit. I do however remain troubled by the effect the big bang theory might have here.

The Guess: I say it equals Sleepy Hollow’s year ago performance (after accounting for overall decline), which considering how much worse FOX is doing, would be a major win. A 2.36

Potential for Major Deviation: High – I don’t think an explosion to mega hit status is out of the realm of possibilities

Sleepy Hollow (2.61 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 9, FOX

Lead-in: Gotham

Lead-out: Local Programming

Episode Order: 18 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, Scorpion, Jane the Virgin, Monday Night Football


The Pros:
• A more compatible and likely higher rated lead-in from Gotham
• Season 1 was very well received up until the end and FOX has made sure to repeat it plenty of times so it is possible that there has been some catch up cable type of phenomena

The Cons:
• Scorpion is likely more compatible competition to it than the comedies were last year
• The show finished way lower than it started last year and one has to wonder what would have really happened to it had it aired the entire season, especially seeing how much FOX has declined since Sleepy Hollow was on the air.
• The limited series things in which hit shows come up for one season but then stay off the air for 9 months or so hasn’t really been working well (see Under the Dome and The Following).

The Verdict: I am on a loss here. I am not sure if The Following and Under the Dome, two shows critically destroyed during their freshman seasons, are really the best comparisons here. Yet, I also feel bad for ignoring them. What’s more is that unlike those shows, Sleepy Hollow really had a fall off at the end of its season inaugural season. On the other hand, there is that pairing with Gotham which I am sure will help quite a bit (the show was airing from sub 2.0s Almost Human towards the end).

The Guess: The Following fell 40%. I won’t ignore it but I won’t go close to it either. 2.07 (-21%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Average

2 Broke Girls (2.54 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 8,CBS

Lead-in: Local Programming

Lead-out: Mom

Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Gotham/?, The Originals, Monday Night Football

The Pros: Hm... I've got nothing

The Cons:
• Local programming lead-in bound to be substantially lower than How I Met Your Mother
• 8pm viewing levels to be lower than those from 8h30 or 9h
• Competition still going fierce with Gotham, The Voice and Dancing with the Stars
• Missing out the first 6 weeks of the season, aka the weeks with the highest viewing levels of the season

The Verdict: Yet another downwards season for 2 Broke Girls, although the loss of the big lead-in will make it a more justified situation

The Guess: 1.94 (-23%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Low

Mom (2.08 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 8h30,CBS

Lead-in: 2 Broke Girls (The Big Bang Theory leads into it for the first five weeks of the season)

Lead-out: Scorpion

Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Gotham/?, The Originals, Monday Night Football

The Pros:
• TBBT as a lead-in for the first six weeks of the season
• Plenty of summer exposure, with frequent double pumping on CBS including post TBBT (with impressive retention levels) and a full Season 1 rearing on TBS
• 2 Broke Girls is probably a slightly better lead-in than Mike and Molly was
• Mom was never highly sampled to begin with, so the additional sample might work wonderfully here if the show proves to be worthy

The Cons: Nothing comes to mind

The Verdict: Maybe I am just overly optimistic because of all the summer results but I am betting on Mom taking big advantage from all this exposure and from TBBT lead-in early on. Besides, I actually think its regular situation this year (8h30 after 2 Broke Girls) is better than the one it got last year (9h30 after Mike and Molly).

The Guess: 2.25 (+8%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Average

Scorpion (New Show)

Timeslot: Mondays at 9, CBS

Lead-in: Mom

Lead-out: NCIS Los Angeles

Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Sleepy Hollow/The Following, Jane the Virgin, Monday Night Football

The Pros:
• Big promotional push from CBS and big vote of confidence breaking up the tradition of the Monday comedy block for it
• TBBT lead-in for the first episode, which should at least guarantee the show is sampled
• Despite strong competition, the hour is majorly dominated by the W18-49 audience that is split between the voice and dancing with the stars. There should be room for a smart procedural that captures the male audience that is not interested in the fantasies of Sleepy Hollow.

The Cons:
• The competition is fierce (albeit apart from Sleepy Hollow, it may not be that much compatible)
• It’s a drama airing out of a moderately rated comedy (Mom), which has proved to be troublesome for plenty of other dramas in the past

The Verdict: Scorpion really is a wildcard that go easily go way above or way below any line that I could come up with. I think that, at the very least, CBS will ensure the show is properly sampled. After than that, it will have to sink or swim on its own merits and guessing whether or not it is able to do that is a big gamble. I am going on a limb here and say it works and scores a Season 2.

The Guess: Equals Person of Interest freshman season from two years ago (after accounting for the overall decline since then), resulting in a solid 2.07 for CBS

Potential for Major Deviation: High (Extremely high!!)

NCIS: Los Angeles (2.43 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 10, CBS

Lead-in: Scorpion

Lead-out: Local Programming

Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

Competition: Castle, The Blacklist/State of Affairs and Monday Night Football

The Pros: Nothing Really

The Cons
• Moving to a new night
• The loss of its 5 year high rated and extremely compatible lead-in
• Facing off against two successful and likely very compatible dramas during the fall, Castle and The Blacklist (even though it probably gets easier once State of Affairs arrives)
• Lower rated 10pm hour
• Potential big problem with the lead-in if Scorpion flops

The Verdict: It’s very impressive that NCIS LA has managed to air for 5 seasons and that we still don’t have any idea of the show’s strength without NCIS. The lead-in loss is bound to affect it. However, and this part is not nearly as much talked about, it’s been a long time since NCIS: LA had to face some serious drama competition in the Tuesdays 9pm hour as crazy as that sounds. Now it will have to face two very competent dramas out of the sudden, and I think this effect might even be more serious to it than the lead-in. Ultimately, a lot depends on Scorpion and whether or not it remains there for the full season, but I say that LA does decent enough business here.

The Guess: 1.73 (-29%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Average (if only because so much depends on Scorpion)

Castle (1.94 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 10, ABC

Lead-in: Dancing with the Stars/ The Bachelor

Lead-out: Local Programming

Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

Competition: NCIS Los Angeles, The Blacklist/State of Affairs and Monday Night Football

The Pros:
• DWTS came back from a very strong spring season so if the surprisingly positive trend continues, Castle may be able to catch the wave and ride up the positive momentum.

The Cons:
• Although Castle was only down 5% last year, the trend was much worse in the second half of the season (it was even year to year by Christmas!), even with a growing DWTS, so the momentum is definitely not on its side.
• Even though The Blacklist and all its success arrived to the slot last year, CBS went total bust at the same time so the hour actually became easier for Castle than when Revolution and Hawaii Five-0 were on the slot. In addition, I think Castle had more of an overlap with Hawaii Five-0 than with the Blacklist. The bad news is that I think it will be back in overlap business with NCIS-LA in the slot and I see Castle really hurting from that clash.

The Verdict: Like I’ve said, I think NCIS:LA will severely complicate matters for Castle and I could see this year being the beginning of the end. Still, I don’t think it is the year it all falls apart. I say it gives away last year’s fall overachievement but gets back on track by spring.

The guess: 1.63 (-16%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Low

The Blacklist (2.89 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 10, NBC for 8 episodes and Thursdays at 9, NBC for the remaining episodes [The Blacklist will also air a post Superbowl episode]

Lead-in: The Voice for the Monday episodes and ? for the Thursday episodes

Lead-out: Local Programming for the Monday episodes and Allegiance for the Thursday episodes

Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

Competition: Castle, NCIS Los Angeles and Monday Night Football while on Mondays. Scandal, Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Backstorm and Reign on Thursdays

The Pros:
• It clearly continues to have the entire NBC’s machine behind it as one can see by the amount of promotion it gets, the fact that it gets to air after the highest rated episodes of the voice of the entire year and the Super bowl episode.
• The show did fall in its voice-less episodes last January but to be fair to it, those were 10pm episodes airing out of low rated reality fare such as Hollywood Game Night. 9pm episodes are much less dependent on the lead-in and enjoy a great viewing level, so one might argue that losing the voice will not hurt it that much this time around.
• The Blacklist was, as NBC likes to claim so often, a record breaker in time shifting viewing, and those are the shows that tend to survive moves the best, especially if they are to earlier timeslots.

The Cons:
• We can argue how much was the voice really propping up the blacklist by season’s end. But I don’t think we can argue that it was propping it up to some degree. And it will lose the voice, so that’s bound to affect it somehow.
• We still do not know what will serve as its lead-in on Thursdays.
• NCIS:LA is much fiercer competition to it than Hostages was a year ago so those fall episodes might also be deflated in the comparisons.

The Verdict: Predicting a season average for something like this, that will move in the middle of the season to a slot still unknown, is particularly hard. I think the blacklist will be only slightly down in the fall episodes if only because the voice will be at its maximum strength during those 8 weeks and I think the Superbowl will ensure it launches well enough on Fridays to settle on a nice low 2s level in there.

The guess: 2.31 (-20%) [Note: Super Bowl episode not included here]

Potential for Major Deviation: Average (simply because there are too many variables at stake here for me to have confidence, particularly the 8pm Thursday lead-in)

The Originals (0.90 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 8,CW

Lead-in: Local Programming

Lead-out: Jane the Virgin

Episode Order: 22 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, 2 Broke Girls & Mom, Gotham, Monday Night Football

The Pros
• The competition from FOX and ABC Family should get easier or, at the very least, less W18-34 leaning, which is where The Original’s demo strength comes from and it’s not like the show wasn’t used to facing the voice already.

The Cons
• Moving to a new night
• Synergies with lead-out Jane the Virgin are likely to be much less of a help than lead-out Supernatural last year (even if it improves somehow at midseason when something else shows up Mondays at 9)
• The Originals fell considerably during the winter and spring episodes making a comeback to fall episodes seem unlikely

The Verdict: I think The Originals will be hurt and I really don’t see it returning to last year’s numbers. More than the new timeslot, I worry about the very troublesome spring trend. I choose to believe it was all a bit blown out of proportion between all the W18-34 it suddenly came its way and the DST hits that took down the CW as a whole, particularly the 8pm hour. I think the show will be down, yes, but certainly not out, and it will still do decent business for the CW.

The Guess: 0.63 (-29%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Average

Jane the Virgin (New Show)

Timeslot: Mondays at 9, CW

Lead-in: The Originals

Lead-out: Local Programming

Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, Scorpion, Sleepy Hollow, Monday Night Football

The Pros
• Despite a major internet backslash upon the pickup, the critics have been surprisingly “okay” about this show.
• The Originals is a decent lead-in and should provide plenty of W18-34 to sample this show.
• Hart of Dixie, which is probably the most comparable show out there with this one, has managed to survive four seasons on the CW.

The Cons
• Critics may do not hate it as much as expected, but the overwhelming reaction to the show is still bad.
• The show really doesn’t fit the overall viewership the CW seems to have these days.
• Hart of Dixie may have survived 4 years on the CW but the CW from four years ago was ridiculously weaker than the CW of today, in which under-performers can easily be cut. Besides, it’s not like the CW doesn’t have plenty of backup shows ready to fill in.
• The Originals may be a high rated lead-in, but is it really that compatible?
• This show is clearly going after the W18-34 audience, but that audience will be pretty busy with the voice and dancing with the stars already. Is there really room for this one at the same time?

The Verdict: I don’t see this show lasting the full season. The competition argument is just too compelling here and like said above, there are plenty of backups ready to come. I can understand the Hart of Dixie comparison but this strikes me more like an Emily Owens type of situation than an Hart of Dixie type. And we all know how that ended up. (Side note: If the Flash is a major hit, I wouldn’t be surprised if Supernatural comes back to Monday to help the Originals restoring the Tuesday pair from last season while The Flash launches iZombie or The Messengers).

The Guess: 0.30

Potential for Major Deviation: Low


Now it's time for you to make your predictions!  Click HERE to submit your predictions!

What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!

Also, what are your viewing plans for Mondays during this fall? Personally, I will be watching the FOX duo of Gotham and Sleepy Hollow, as well as The Originals and The Blacklist! Still thinking about whether or not to try Scorpion! What about you?

Thank you for reading and participating ;)I will be back tomorrow with the Tuesday shows!