Ratings News - 2nd October 2014

Today's Early Overnight Ratings

This table shows the early overnight ratings. These ratings are normally adjusted later in the day when all the ratings have been consolidated to take into account any local preemptions and/or overruns. You can find all the final adjusted numbers in our Ratings Database. (See the About section below for details about ratings)

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Early Ratings Analysis

The analysis below is based on the early household numbers and are NOT the same as the numbers that will be posted in the above table later. (See the About section below)

For more information on the Nielsen Ratings see this Wikipedia Entry.

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are NOT those of SpoilerTV but of the Author of this Article, Marc Berman.

Metered Market Wednesday Ratings
CBS Wins; Dominant but Still Disappointing “Stalker” Debut

Wednesday 10/01/14

Household
Rating/Share
CBS 6.4/10
ABC 5.2/ 9
NBC 5.2/ 9
Fox 2.8/ 5
CW 0.6/ 1

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-Percent Change from Year-Ago Evening – Wednesday 10/02/13:
NBC: +13, CBS: – 2, ABC: – 4, CW: -45, Fox: -51

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Note: The following labels are based on the household overnights and are subject to change given the availability of other pending data streams. As always, these overnights are your first look at the ratings and a precursor to what could lie ahead. And we take into account other benchmarks including the expected demographic ratings, potential DVR usage, the critical acclaim (or lack of) and the social media presence.

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-Winners:
“Survivor” (CBS), “Modern Family” (ABC), “Criminal Minds” (CBS)

-Very Promising:
“The Goldbergs” (ABC), “Black-ish” (ABC)

-Solid Audience Base but Older Skewing:
“The Mysteries of Laura” (NBC)

-Dominant but Still Disappointing:
“Stalker” (CBS)

-Disappointing:
“Hell’s Kitchen” (Fox), “Chicago PD” (NBC)

-Losers (excluding repeats):
“Red Band Society” (Fox), “Nashville” (ABC)

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Ratings Breakdown:
CBS got over the Wednesday “hump” in winning overnight fashion, besting second-place ABC and NBC by an average of 23 percent. But the home of “Modern Family,” ABC, should have no trouble narrowing the gap in all the key young adult demographics. The real question is how episode one of “Stalker” fared demographically.

In series-premiere news, crime solver “Stalker” on CBS won the 10 p.m. hour with a 6.0 rating/10 share in the overnights. Comparably, this was right on par with year-ago occupant “CSI,” which resulted in 9.66 million viewers and a 2.1 rating/6 share among adults 18-49, based on the Live + Same Day data. And overnight retention for “Stalker” out of the 9:30 p.m. portion of lead-in “Criminal Minds” (7.5/12) was adequate at 80 percent. But given that most new series drop 10 to 20 percent in week two (see “Black-ish” on ABC below), time period dominance does not always warrant being labeled a “winner.” And this is actually a disappointing start – at least in the overnights – for “Stalker.” Let’s wait and see what the demos and DVR usage looks like.

The 10th season-premiere of the Eye net’s aforementioned “Criminal Minds,” now featuring Jennifer Love Hewitt, scored an overnight victory from 9-10 p.m. with a 7.5/12. Comparably, that topped the evening with minor growth of four percent from the 7.2/12 on the year-ago evening.

At 8 p.m. on CBS, meanwhile, was veteran “Survivor” at a solid 5.8/ 9, which was equal to last week’s 90-minute season-opener and six percent below the year-ago evening. The 5.8 in the overnights on Sept. 24 translated into 9.75 million viewers and a 2.7 rating/9 share among adults 18-49, based on the Live + Same Day data.

In week two news, ABC sitcom “Black-ish” dipped 20 percent in the overnights week-to-week, with a second-place 6.1/10 at 9:30 p.m. But this was still 11 percent above the series-premiere of failed year-ago occupant “Super Fun Night” (5.5/ 9 on 10/02/13). And the retention for “Black-ish” out of lead-in “Modern Family” (#2: 7.4/12) was still very promising at 82 percent. Two episodes in and it looks like ABC might have finally found something worth keeping out of “Modern Family.”

Earlier in the evening on ABC was “The Middle” (#3: 5.2/ 9) into compatible “The Goldbergs” (#3: 4.9/ 8), which bested failed year-ago occupant “Back in the Game” (4.7/ 8 on 10/02/13) by four percent. And “Nashville” capped off the night with a typical third-place 3.9/ 7 at 10 p.m., which was equal to its week-ago season-premiere (which only translated into a 1.5/ 5 rating in adults 18-49).

In episode three news, NBC Debra Messing drama “The Mysteries of Laura” remains a surprisingly positive total viewer entry, with a dominant 6.1/10 at 8 p.m. Comparably, that was just eight percent below its time period debut last week (6.6/11 on Oct. 1) and it beat year-ago occupant “Revolution” (3.9/ 7 on 10/02/13) by a hefty 56 percent. But, looking at the entire picture, that 6.6/11 in the overnights last week only translated into a 1.5/ 5 among adults 18-49 (with 10.01 million viewers overall), based on the Live + Same Day data. And NBC may not necessarily be a fan of “The Mystery of Laura’s” older audience skew. Remember the premature cancellation of similar appeal “Harry’s Law” with Kathy Bates in May 2012?

Next on NBC was veteran “Law & Order: SVU” at a third-place 5.3/ 8 at 9 p.m., which was eight percent above the 4.9/ 8 on the year-ago evening. And sophomore “Chicago PD” followed with a second-place 4.3/ 7 at 10 p.m., which was 19 percent below its 5.3/ 9 season opener one week earlier and 14 percent below the series debut of the failed revival of “Ironside” on the year-ago evening (5.0/ 9 on 10/02/13). Retention for “Chicago PD” out of the 9:30 p.m. portion of “SVU” (5.4/ 8) was 80 percent.

On Fox, “Hell’s Kitchen” perked up a bit to a 3.1/ 5 (#4) at 8 p.m., which was 15 percent above the 2.7/ 5 one week earlier. But, versus year-ago occupant “The X Factor” (5.6/ 9 in the time period on 10/02/13), it was still down by a significant 45 percent. And it led into a 2.6/ 4 in the overnights at 9 p.m. for “Red Band Society” at 9 p.m. (#4), which equaled episode two one week earlier. And that translated into just 3.43 million viewers and a 1.1/ 3 among adults 18-49, based on the Live + Same Day data.

Capping off the night were two encore telecasts of “Arrow” on The CW at a very non-competitive 0.6/ 1 from 8-10 p.m. Next week, look for the season premiere of “Arrow” into a repeat of the pilot episode of spin-off “The Flash” (which debuts next Tuesday).

Source: Nielsen Media Research data

Source:

Marc Berman@tvmediainsights

About the Daily Ratings

Each day (except Sunday) during the main TV Season we post the TV Ratings for the previous nights primetime shows for the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC). Cable Network ratings will be added to the Ratings Database.

The first item that gets posted (normally around 2pm GMT) is the early overnight analysis based on the early household numbers (these are not the same as the Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers that are posted later).

Next, if available, we will post the Top 25 Market 18-49 Ratings to give you a rough idea of the ratings to following.

Later on (normally between 4pm-5pm GMT) we post the official early overnight Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers in the table above.

Finally, later in the evening (10pm-11pm GMT) or the following day, the final adjusted ratings numbers are released, these are then posted in the Ratings Database. The Final Adjusted numbers are what we use for all our Renew/Cancellation Tables, Full Season Tables, Ratings Scorecards etc (see below). Friday's Final Adjusted Ratings are normally available on the following Monday.

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Our Cancellation/Renewal predictions for the current season.

Ratings Database

Historical Ratings Database for nearly all major US shows going back to their first episodes.

Full Season Tables

The current season full ratings tables for both Total Viewers and 18-49 Demos

Ratings Scorecard

See how all the shows stack up against each other in the Ratings Scorecard Table.