Ratings Predictions - Fall TV Preview - Wednesday

One more day of premiere week, one more day of predictions! Although my track record of new series isn't exactly looking good so far (yep, I though Scream Queens would premiere with a 3.5 and I am still shocked with what happened), I will continue to give you tones of text to read concerning my thoughts on the shows yet to come, if you feel like reading it anyway. As usual, please let us know in the comments what your guesses are, both for the seasonal averages and for the premieres!

The Middle (1.99 Last Year, down 3%)
Timeslot: ABC, Wednesdays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: The Goldbergs
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Survivor, The Mysteries of Laura, Rosewood, Arrow


Pros
- After accounting for the league average declines, this is a show that just had its highest rated season ever last year! That’s a hell of an accomplishment in its 7th year of existence! The trend bodes very well for next year!
- Most of the show’s best y2y comparisons actually came later in the season and not in the fall, when the show was underachieving to some degree compared to the rest of the Wednesday block. Whether that was syndication kicking in later on or simply some fall underachievement, the trend was still better later in the year which makes the outlook for the new season all the more promising!
- Competition continues to be a piece of cake as Survivor is a very worthy opponent but perfectly allows for coexistence, The Mysteries of Laura is a flop and Rosewood doesn’t seem to be any different either.

Cons
- Last year, the ABC Wednesday block was such a promotional darling because it had Black-ish as new show and The Goldbergs as a transplanted show. Marketing wasn’t quite as strong this year (Although still very potent on its own right).
- The Middle did so well last year that it could be one of those shows that just gives back some of the gains the year after.
- Summer repeats haven’t exactly shined as much as last year.

Bottom Line I don’t see any reason to be pessimistic here. Another 3% decline in raw numbers seems impossible to ask for, but I think it can continue to make ground by declining less than the league average, though not by all that much. 1.825 (-8%)

The Goldbergs (2.17 Last Year, up 29%)
Timeslot: ABC, Wednesdays at 8h30pm
Lead-in: The Middle
Lead-out: Modern Family
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Survivor, The Mysteries of Laura, Rosewood, Arrow


 Pros
- The Goldbergs just came from a season with one of the biggest sophomore bounces in memory, having grown an insane 29% y2y, which even accounting for the much better circumstances, is still amazing.
- The trend didn’t really seem to get any weaker towards the end of the season, once accounting for the lowering viewing levels.
- As a young comedy, it is still much more likely to benefit from new people finding it out than the comedies that surround it.
- Like for The Middle, the slot really isn’t difficult competition wise.

Cons
- This was the show for which the summer repeat ratings had the worse y2y comparisons. Maybe that spells trouble for the new season (although that could as easily be explained with last year the repeats’ big numbers being people actually finding the show since they hadn’t seen it the first time around on Tuesday)
- The show had so much heat and momentum last year that it is going to be very hard to replicate it this year. Besides, it seems that it isn’t quite as much a priority for ABC promotional wise as it was last season.

Bottom Line In a way, I have to think this show overachieved a bit last year, since it became such a radically different show than the one it was the year before, even once we account for all the different circumstances. And while I do indeed feel that momentum has fallen to some degree, I am not really sure it will be all that damaging (or even how accurate my perception is). The slot continues to be ideal and I expect its lead-in to trend slightly upwards, so this should continue to be very strong too. Falls almost as much as the league average. 1.943 (-11%)

Modern Family (3.19 Last Year, down 10%)
Timeslot: ABC, Wednesdays at 9hpm
Lead-in: The Goldbergs
Lead-out: Black-ish
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Empire, Law and Order: SVU, Criminal Minds, Supernatural



Pros
- Modern Family was able to revert its decline over the last few seasons last year, when it actually posted minor y2y growth (After accounting for the league average decline). That is a very good thing for a show this old!
- Its lead-in and lead-out, which were probably the main reason for the positive season it had last year, will likely continue to be solid, unlike in past years.

Cons
- There was no Emmy love this year for the show. And while I am not sure how much attention the Emmys still bring to it every fall, they sure couldn’t have been hurting it either.
- Last year, Modern Family only had to face Empire for a handful of episodes. This year, the show is there for a much larger period and that is bound to hurt, as the slot gets significantly tougher than when Modern Family was facing the likes of Red Band Society.
- Its finale was an absolute disaster, well below any other data point from the season. That is a really bad way to head into the new season.

Bottom Line The 9pm ABC comedies this year have a very particular yet very significant difference from the 8pm ones: Empire. I think that factor will be enough for a change in trends here. Add to that the fact that Modern Family was regularly declining the seasons before the Year of Bonanza of ABC Wednesday (last year) and I don’t see how it grows again. 2.70 (-15%)

Black-ish (2.28 Last Year)
Timeslot: ABC, Wednesdays at 9h30pm
Lead-in: Modern Family
Lead-out: Nashville
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Empire, Law and Order: SVU, Criminal Minds, Supernatural




Pros
- ABC spent the summer relentlessly focusing on promoting this comedy, from Wednesday marathons to Tuesday airings. So it is still pretty high on their marketing effort and that ought to count for something
- It continues to get the still stout Modern Family as lead-in, which is always an amazing thing for a family comedy!
- Most of the opinions on this show (and is one I share) is that it got better creatively as the season progresses. Maybe that helps Season 2 to remain more stable then?

Cons
- Empire damaged the show last year when the two were going head to head in the winter. The show appeared to have lost momentum and it wasn’t until it gained it back when Empire departed that it became clear what the problem was. This year however, it will have to face Empire for way more than a handful of episodes. It’s a very tough proposition and a big ask of this show!
- Last year this was a flashy new thing that everyone was sampling. It will be very hard for it to replicate the early fall ratings, and that is even before taking into account the Empire of it all!

Bottom Line Much like Modern Family, I think the presence of Empire here will undermine any potential for growth that there could be. Add to that the fact that it had some overachievement last year from initial sampling and it is bound to give up some ground, though I don’t think anything too dramatic is going to happen, meaning this show should continue to be a success. And it should have a nice bounce in the winter. 1.81 (-21%)

Nashville (1.34 Last Year, down 9%)
Timeslot: ABC, Wednesdays at 10hpm
Lead-in: Black-ish
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Chicago PD, Code Black, American Horror Story


 Pros
- Nashville pulled of the improbable accomplishment of actually growing last season (after accounting for the league average decline), which is pretty rare for a serialized show in their third year. Maybe this show simply has its core audience that is willing to watch it live regardless?
- The timeslot continues to be very weak in terms of broadcast competitors, unless Code Black explodes.

Cons
- Last year, most of the growth was probably about Black-ish being such a major improvement on Super Fun Night and Mixology. And Black-ish is bound to go down a few notches this year. Nashville probably follows suit then.
- It is just so unlikely that a serialized show can grow this deep into its run that it is at least a possibility that last year was an overachievement bound to be given back this season?
- Code Black, even at Stalker modest levels, could be a problem since there should be more overlap between this and a medical drama than the crime procedurals that CBS has aired there before.

Bottom Line I don’t see how this show pulls of another year of growth but I also don’t see any reason to expect it to perform any worse. It seems to have found its audience and the timeslot continues to be easy enough (even with Black-ish declining) for that to be enough. So I say it falls a bit more than the league average, but not by all that much. 1.153 (-14%)

The Mysteries of Laura (1.21 Last Year)
Timeslot: NBC, Wednesdays at 8hpm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Law and Order: SVU
Episode Order: 13 episodes (with a possible 22-24 extension) I believe
Competition: The Middle & The Goldbergs, Survivor, Rosewood, Arrow

 Pros
- Old skewing entries like this tend to be less prone to huge sophomore slumps since its audience is usually less fickle. And sometimes they even manage to find growth over the years (look at how weak NCIS was when it started, only to become the highest rated drama on TV years after!)
- The slot is stable enough that it shouldn’t really be any more difficult than it was.
- Despite last year’s results, this was shockingly still pretty high on NBC’s promotional priorities during the summer!

Cons
- The numbers were pretty horrible last year and, most importantly, had a horrible trend. Most of her okay’s numbers came very early in its run, which spells trouble for next year.
- Although I don’t expect anything major out of Rosewood, I think it can have more damage on this than something like Hell’s Kitchen, considering it is also an old skewing procedural going after essentially the same audience!

Bottom Line This is a show that did not deserve the renewal at all, simply putting. And, even worse, it did not deserve to keep this midweek lead-off role slot. At least when CBS renews shows for backend reasons (and there isn’t even one here since NBC doesn’t freaking own this!), they have the common sense to place them in semi-weekend slots or 10pm. They don’t use them as night lead-offs! NBC clearly wants a fractional average on the slot and that is what they shall get. 0.93(-23%)

Law and Order: SVU (1.61 Last Year, down 8%)
Timeslot: NBC, Wednesdays at 9hpm
Lead-in: The Mysteries of Laura
Lead-out: Chicago PD
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Empire, Criminal Minds, Modern Family & Black-ish, Supernatural

 Pros
- The oldest live action scripted program on television amazingly has managed to grow for the past two years (After accounting for the league average decline). That’s a hell of an accomplishment that makes it outlook very promising!
- While not a Chicago show, it is still a Dick Wolf show, which means it gets to enjoy some of the synergies involved, particularly when it comes to crossover time!
- I think it is almost impossible that NBC really decides to stick with Laura at 8pm the entire season. At some point, she is going to do terrible enough that they banish her to Saturdays. And I think there is a decent shot that whatever takes over (Law and Order: You the Judge ?) does better than Laura did last Spring, helping SVU to stabilize.
- The show that clearly has the most crossover audience with it, Criminal Minds, dwindled down last year. SVU can maybe take advantage of that momentum to gain even more ground in that battle.

Cons
- It will have to face Empire for a very large portion of the season, a show that clearly had an effect on it last season!
- SVU had some stinker data points very late in the season last year, including after Empire was over. Its average and y2y growth really was frontloaded, which could mean that it doesn’t really much heading into next season and that, instead, the spring performance will be the more representative one!
- It is possible that 4 way crossovers simply become too much to handle and that NBC simply decides to let SVU out of the loop for the most part in favor of the new, flashier Chicago Med, which would mean no special bounces on crossover nights.

Bottom Line I think it is very admirable how this show has managed to grow in the last few seasons despite a tough timeslot and its age. However, I think last season ended on a bad enough note for me to be worried about the next one and that is without even factoring in Empire. Something has got to give Wednesdays at 9pm since it is hard to imagine all the networks actually being competent and this seems a likely candidate, especially with Laura collapsing at 8pm. So I say it goes down a lot in the fall, is mostly even or very slightly up in the winter, and down moderately in the spring. 1.342 (-17%)

Chicago PD (1.58 Last Year, down 6%)
Timeslot: NBC, Wednesdays at 10hpm
Lead-in: Law and Order: SVU
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Nashville, Code Black, American Horror Story


Pros
- This show just had a sophomore bounce by growing last year (after accounting for the league average decline). It is never a good idea to count those out!
- The slot should remain very uncompetitive for the most part and swapping the crime procedurals with Code Black on CBS is actually a good thing for PD, as there is even less shared audience between the two. On top of that, it may be that some crime procedurals fans just find this out after Criminal Minds is over on CBS!
- Although SVU should trend down, it shouldn’t do so in such a major way that prevents PD from growing from it.
- With the addition of a third Chicago show, NBC is even more focused on the marketing and promotion of the franchise than usual which means this show is likely going to ride the wave there too!
- The addition of a third Chicago means not only more marketing resources allocated to this, but also more crossovers, which always raise the ratings in a pretty significant manner, especially for this particularly show, which is the last one to air in the week and, as such, often has the culminating of the crossover taking place.

Cons
- If Code Black hits, Chicago PD can suddenly find itself with a worthy opponent for a change! And even if it does flop, CBS will probably plug in Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders here at midseason, which is likely to be its most worthy adversary on broadcast yet.
- If SVU takes a higher than expected damage, that could limit PD’s ability to bounce back from that.
- A third Chicago sounds great in theory but there is a risk that people simply do not want to dedicate 3 hours per week to that franchise and thus simply trade this out for the new, flashier thing that is Chicago Med (which also happens to air right next to the mothership, making it all much more convenient)

Bottom Line The show had a good trend last year and the timeslot will remain a relatively easy one this year. While there is always danger with the addition of a second spin-off for the former one, I do not think it will matter all that much here and I think all the crossover and marketing will do more good than harm. I think it grows from SVU for the most part and is more stable than last year around the 1.4 mark, other than the jumps on crossover nights. 1.43 (-9%)

Criminal Minds (2.15 Last Year, down 14%)
Timeslot: CBS, Wednesdays at 9pm
Lead-in: Survivor
Lead-out: Code Black
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Empire, Law and Order: SVU, Modern Family & Black-ish, Supernatural


Pros
- Survivor will continue to be a rather excellent lead-in! And CBS is likely to continue to keep the 8pm slot warm over the winter, so that should help a bit too.
- There is a spin-off coming midseason, which means this show will probably receive more marketing attention and media buzz than it has received in years. That should help it stabilize better than this year in the later portion of the season.

Cons
- The competition is just killer. Not only does SVU continue to trend better than this show, but Empire is also a beast that is on the slot to stay. It’s just too much.
- This show ended last season on a rather horrible note, with a finale that was down 23% year to year! Yikes! That is not promising at all.
- It was bad last year with crime dramas at 10pm… Why would it be any better with a medical drama at 10pm?

Bottom Line This show trended pretty badly last year. -14% is not a bad number at all but is worse here because the worst data points came at the end of the season (which makes the outlook for next year problematic) and because this is an old skewing show and those shouldn’t really drop much. The fact that Empire will be a much more frequent competitor won’t do it any favors either. I do think the presence of the spin-off at midseason will help out a bit as it will be a more buzzy show than recently, but not enough to exactly move the needle much. So I think it takes a similar drop to last year, though this time the worse data points come in the fall. 1.857 (-14%)

Code Black (New Show)
Timeslot: CBS, Wednesdays at 10pm
Lead-in: Criminal Minds
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 episodes extension)
Competition: Nashville, Chicago PD, American Horror Story




Pros
- Criminal Minds is still one of the best lead-ins CBS can offer!
- It has been a while since a medical show really has succeeded on broadcast and all of the sudden there was multiple interest on them this year from the networks. Maybe there is some market research hidden out there we don’t know about?
- The competition is as easy as it gets.

Cons
- Is there really much interest in medical dramas right now? Recent examples like The Night Shift didn’t really show that. Why would this show be any different?
- The promos for this show have put the focus on leads that seem simply too much out of the scope of the demo. Can it really work around that?
- Criminal Minds may be a strong lead-in but it is also declining. Besides, is compatibility really even there between a police procedural and a medical drama?

Bottom Line I am not optimistic here. The Criminal Minds audience didn’t want Stalker or CSI Cyber last year and I do not see why it would want this one this year. Plus, as horrible as it sounds to say it, I cannot see the type of marketing that has been done make waves with people within the demo. I think it will bring a lot of old viewers and CBS will brag about it everywhere, but as far as demo is concerned, it will probably go below what Stalker did in the slot last year. Still, CM is a solid enough lead-in and this show has been promoted enough that I doubt it is an outright disaster, but still capped at 13 to make way for the spin-off midseason. 1.21

Rosewood (New Show)
Timeslot: FOX, Wednesdays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Empire
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 episodes extension)
Competition: Survivor, The Middle & The Goldbergs, The Mysteries of Laura, Arrow

 Pros
- It has freaking Empire as a lead-out. No one knows for sure what is the impact of such a monster lead-out on the preceding show but Idol surely proved there was one last year.
- The competition is actually easy.
- Diversity is clearly on the upswing and the fact that this show is being marketed on that vein and packed together with Empire could yield dividends.

Cons
- It has horrible pre-season tracking indicators everywhere we look.
- Even if the Empire lead-out effect exists, would it really apply for a procedural like this that has nothing to do with the soapy nature of Empire?
- Ironically, this is the one type of show against which The Mysteries of Laura might actually not be irrelevant competition.
- There is little to no connection between the audience FOX is targeting with this show and the audience that typically watches FOX.

Bottom Line Yikes. If there was ever a true test of the lead-out effect, it is probably this one. I cannot see this succeeding. I think it would obviously be lower if Empire wasn’t there, but I still think it is going to be pretty low. Cannot really believe on the idea that tones of people do not have remotes and cannot chose to watch the casual viewing friendly The Goldbergs if they really want to watch something instead of this while waiting for Empire. 13 and done. 1.2

Empire (5.09 Last Year)
Timeslot: FOX, Wednesdays at 9pm
Lead-in: Rosewood
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 18 episodes
Competition: Modern Family & Black-ish, Law and Order: SVU, Criminal Minds, Supernatural



Pros
- This is a monster of epic proportions. It didn’t stop growing last year week after week. Why would it now?
- The timeslot really isn’t any more difficult especially since I predict every competitor to trend downwards.
- The buzz that Empire got during last season’s run and the fact that it was just 13 episodes makes it the ideal candidate for binge watching during the summer. It is very likely that even more people caught up to the phenomenon.

Cons
- Previous monsters like Desperate Housewives actually peaked in the Season 1 finale and then gradually went down during Season 2, sort of a reverse of Season 1 trend. Empire could follow suit.
- At some point, normal standards just have to apply to this monster. It has to be bound to come back to earth at some point, right? Can there still be an infinite number of people who want to catch up?
- The lead-in is getting substantially lower since FOX is replacing American Idol with Rosewood.
- Last season’s buzz, week after week, is just something that not replicable this year. You cannot have that event feel again.

Bottom Line Straight up: I do not consider myself competent to predict the ratings for Empire. Most of my predictions come from observation of the way the show or similar shows have behaved in the past in similar situations. Looking at trends, surrounding conditions and dynamics, and stuff like that. Nothing like that applies to Empire, so my guess is a shot in the dark. I kind of think it will mirror a bit the likes of DH. I think it will peak with the Season 2 premiere and then fall from there, sort in a reverse of Season 1 type of trend. It should still stabilize at a pretty ridiculous level though. I will keep it simple: 5.0 (-2%)

That's it for today! Remember to let us know in the comments what your predictions both for premieres and seasonal averages!